Crude oil experiences a pullback as disappointing Chinese data weakens expectations for a demand recovery.

• Oil prices fell by nearly 1% on Monday, approaching a drop below $70.00.
• Traders pushed the price lower after Chinese Retail Sales growth came in significantly below expectations.
• Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index traded below 107.00, as European PMI data contributed to a weaker Greenback.

Crude oil prices, which had been on a profitable rally of over 5%, are losing momentum on Monday following weaker-than-expected Chinese retail data. This raises concerns about the 2025 outlook, where a recovery in China is considered crucial for boosting overall oil consumption. If President-elect Donald Trump follows through with additional tariffs, Chinese oil demand could further decline in 2025.

Crude oil saw a decline on Monday, approaching the $70 mark, as disappointing Chinese retail sales data for November raised concerns about a slow recovery in the region. The 3% growth figure fell short of expectations, and the outlook looks even bleaker as tanker rates on major routes to China drop to their lowest level this year, signalling weaker demand ahead.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is weaker on Monday due to a recovery in the Euro, a significant component of the index. Germany’s preliminary Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December rebounded to 51, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction. Meanwhile, Germany faces political uncertainty, with snap elections scheduled for February 23, 2025, which could lead to the fall of its government.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that the global oil market will stay well-supplied in 2025, despite OPEC’s ongoing production cuts and demand projections indicating modest growth, according to Reuters.