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crude oil analysis

Oil prices surge amid growing concerns over potential additional sanctions on Russia and Iran.

Oil prices soared on Friday, heading for their third consecutive week of gains, as traders focused on the possibility of supply disruptions due to additional sanctions on Russia and Iran.

In the three weeks leading up to January 10, Brent has risen by 8%, while WTI has surged by 9%.

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 approaches, growing concerns over potential supply disruptions are emerging, fueled by tighter sanctions against Iran and Russia, while oil inventories remain low.

These disruptions could occur sooner, as U.S. President Joe Biden is anticipated to impose new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy before Trump assumes office. Russia’s oil industry has been a prominent focus of previous sanctions.

The U.S. weather bureau forecasts below-average temperatures for the central and eastern parts of the country. Additionally, much of Europe is grappling with extreme cold, and this trend is expected to persist into the new year, likely driving up demand.

This week, the premium on the front-month Brent contract compared to the six-month contract reached its highest level since August, suggesting potential supply constraints amid increasing demand.

Analyst noted that concerns over inflation are also contributing to the rise in crude oil prices. Investors are becoming more wary of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could exacerbate inflation. A common strategy to protect against rising consumer prices is purchasing oil futures.

Despite the U.S. dollar’s six-week streak of strengthening, which typically makes crude oil pricier outside the United States, oil prices have continued to climb.