This week’s forex market witnessed mixed movements across major currency pairs. While the US Dollar (USD) showed resilience in some pairs, overall caution persisted due to global trade uncertainties and signs of slowing US economic growth. The upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision remains the focal point for traders.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- EUR/USD Steady as Fed Decision and Trade Talks Loom
- GBP/USD Slips After Failing to Break Resistance on USD Strength
- USD/JPY Rises as BoJ Holds Policy, Fed in Focus
- AUD/USD Weakens Amid China Concerns, Fed Outlook Eyed Closely
EUR/USD: Fed Policy and Trade Developments to Guide Direction
Weekly Summary
The EUR/USD pair faced modest selling pressure for the second consecutive week but stabilized near the 1.1350 level, ending the week largely unchanged.
- Investor caution toward the USD stemmed from concerns over US trade policies and weaker Q1 economic data.
- EU macro data, although subdued, presented a relatively more stable outlook.
- The upcoming Fed rate decision and global trade developments remain key drivers.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential:
- MA 10: 1.1329 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1260 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.1032 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple:
- MA 10: 1.1366 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1291 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.0975 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 56.32 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 17.47 | Sell Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.1530 | R2: 1.1718
- Support: S1: 1.0923 | S2: 1.0735
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 1.1213 | Take Profit: 1.1430 | Stop Loss: 1.1094
GBP/USD: Sterling Pulls Back from Three-Year High
Weekly Summary
The GBP/USD pair corrected lower after failing to surpass the 1.3450 resistance, pressured by renewed USD strength.
- The Dollar gained on trade optimism and positive economic signals.
- Despite a Q1 contraction, upbeat manufacturing PMI data helped sustain USD demand.
- The focus now shifts to the Fed and Bank of England (BoE) policy decisions.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential:
- MA 10: 1.3294 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.3219 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.3030 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple:
- MA 10: 1.3327 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.3191 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.3002 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 56.39 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 54.99 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.3439 | R2: 1.3613
- Support: S1: 1.2878 | S2: 1.2704
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 1.3152 | Take Profit: 1.3424 | Stop Loss: 1.3005
USD/JPY: Yen Weakens as BoJ Holds Course
Weekly Summary
The USD/JPY pair moved higher as the USD strengthened, while the Japanese Yen remained under pressure amid a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy despite rising inflation.
- The USD was supported by rising yields and strong macro data.
- Traders now await the Fed decision and US labor market data for direction.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential:
- MA 10: 143.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 144.16 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 146.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- Simple:
- MA 10: 143.03 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 143.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 146.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Indicators
- RSI: 50.64 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 80.42 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 148.49 | R2: 150.99
- Support: S1: 140.39 | S2: 137.88
Overall Sentiment: Neutral
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell at 146.09 | Take Profit: 143.42 | Stop Loss: 148.32
AUD/USD: Aussie Struggles Amid China Concerns
Weekly Summary
The AUD/USD pair remained under pressure, with China-related worries and firm USD sentiment capping gains.
- Weak Chinese PMI data weighed on risk sentiment.
- RBA maintained a cautious stance in its latest update.
- Traders await US Fed guidance and key Australian economic data.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential:
- MA 10: 0.6389 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6354 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6318 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple:
- MA 10: 0.6398 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6318 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6300 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 59.80 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 74.37 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 0.6459 | R2: 0.6585
- Support: S1: 0.6050 | S2: 0.5924
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 0.6404 | Take Profit: 0.6513 | Stop Loss: 0.6344
Additional Market Movements
- USD/CAD: Down 0.27% to 1.3817
- USD/CHF: Down 0.29% to 0.8269
- EUR/GBP: Up 0.10% to 0.8509
- EUR/AUD: Down 0.90% to 1.7527
- AUD/NZD: Up 0.34% to 1.0845
- USD/CNY: Up 0.01% to 7.2706
- AUD/SEK: Down 0.03% to 6.2208
Key Economic Events This Week
Monday
- USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
- USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
Wednesday
- USD: FOMC Statement
- USD: Federal Funds Rate Decision
Thursday
- USD: FOMC Press Conference
- USD: Initial Jobless Claims
- GBP: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (May)
- GBP: BoE Inflation Letter
Friday
- GBP: Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- GBP: BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
- CAD: Employment Change (Apr)