The global currency markets are positioned for heightened volatility ahead of key economic indicators from the Eurozone and the United States, including Eurozone CPI and US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The EUR/USD pair attempts a recovery above 1.1300, while GBP/USD edges lower on rising US-China trade optimism. Meanwhile, USD/JPY faces resistance due to a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), and AUD/USD stabilizes despite commodity-related pressures.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS 

• EUR/USD Rebounds Above 1.1300 Before Key Data
• GBP/USD Slips Slightly Amid US-China Trade Hopes
• USD/JPY Rebound Stalls on Dovish BoJ Outlook
• AUD/USD Holds Steady Despite Pressure From Commodities

EUR/USD: Rebounds Ahead of Key Data Releases

Market Overview

The EUR/USD pair is gaining traction during Friday’s Asian session, rebounding from a multi-week low near 1.1265. The recovery is largely driven by market repositioning ahead of:

• Eurozone CPI data
• US Non-Farm Payrolls report

Recent ECB commentary has raised concerns about declining inflation, making the CPI release pivotal. A softer CPI may increase expectations for a 25-bps rate cut in July, potentially weakening the euro further.

In the US, the April NFP report is projected to show a drop in job additions (133K vs. 228K in March), with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. These data points will influence the Fed’s policy path, especially amid growing expectations of four rate cuts before year-end due to weak GDP data.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 1.1332 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1262 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1033 | Bullish
• Simple
• MA 10: 1.1367 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1291 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0975 | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 57.05 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 18.96 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Support and Resistance

• Resistance: R1: 1.1530 | R2: 1.1718
• Support: S1: 1.0923 | S2: 1.0735

Trade Suggestion

• Position: Limit Buy
• Entry: 1.1201
• Take Profit: 1.1458
• Stop Loss: 1.1059

GBP/USD: Slight Decline Amid US-China Trade Optimism

Market Overview

GBP/USD trades modestly lower below 1.3330 as risk sentiment improves on signals of possible US-China trade discussions. Positive developments around global trade have strengthened the USD.

Additional factors influencing the pair include:

• Rise in US Initial Jobless Claims to 241K
• ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly above expectations
• BoE Governor’s warnings on global trade tensions

Speculation grows that the Bank of England may cut rates in May amid global economic uncertainty.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 1.3303 | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.3224 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.3032 | Bullish
• Simple
• MA 10: 1.3332 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.3194 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.3003 | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 59.23 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 61.33 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Support and Resistance

• Resistance: R1: 1.3439 | R2: 1.3613
• Support: S1: 1.2878 | S2: 1.2704

Trade Suggestion

• Position: Limit Buy
• Entry: 1.3209
• Take Profit: 1.3428
• Stop Loss: 1.3088

USD/JPY: Gains Capped by Dovish BoJ

Market Overview

The Japanese Yen shows a minor recovery against the US Dollar, halting its three-day slide. However, upside potential for JPY remains limited due to:

• BoJ’s downward revision of growth and inflation outlook
• Persistent global trade uncertainty
• Diminished rate hike expectations from the BoJ

The pair is likely to remain range-bound until the release of US NFP data later in the day.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 143.67 | Bullish
• MA 20: 144.19 | Bullish
• MA 50: 146.58 | Bearish
• Simple
• MA 10: 143.06 | Bullish
• MA 20: 143.62 | Bullish
• MA 50: 146.84 | Bearish

Indicators

• RSI: 52.06 | Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 82.41 | Neutral

Support and Resistance

• Resistance: R1: 148.49 | R2: 150.99
• Support: S1: 140.39 | S2: 137.88

Trade Suggestion

• Position: Limit Sell
• Entry: 146.14
• Take Profit: 142.04
• Stop Loss: 149.08

AUD/USD: Stable Amid Mixed Fundamentals

Market Overview

The AUD/USD pair holds steady as market sentiment improves and the US Dollar slightly weakens. Key developments include:

• Australian retail sales rose 0.3% MoM in March (vs. 0.4% expected)
• Falling commodity prices (iron ore, copper, gold) cap AUD gains
• US-China trade optimism supports risk sentiment
• RBA likely to consider a rate cut in May due to global trade concerns

Despite mixed domestic data, the pair finds support from improved global sentiment.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 0.6383 | Bullish
• MA 20: 0.6351 | Bullish
• MA 50: 0.6317 | Bullish
• Simple
• MA 10: 0.6395 | Bullish
• MA 20: 0.6316 | Bullish
• MA 50: 0.6299 | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 57.49 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 70.86 | Neutral

Support and Resistance

• Resistance: R1: 0.6459 | R2: 0.6585
• Support: S1: 0.6050 | S2: 0.5924

Trade Suggestion

• Position: Limit Buy
• Entry: 0.6399
• Take Profit: 0.6434
• Stop Loss: 0.6382

Other Major Forex Movers

• USD/CAD: Down 0.25% at 1.3819
• USD/CHF: Down 0.19% at 0.8277
• EUR/GBP: Down 0.13% at 0.8494
• EUR/AUD: Down 0.24% at 1.7641
• AUD/NZD: Down 0.03% at 1.0806
• USD/CNY: Down 0.01% at 7.2613
• AUD/SEK: Up 0.28% at 6.2047

Key Economic Events Today