Mixed signals continue to shape commodity markets as investors monitor critical developments, including a potential US-UK trade deal, upcoming US jobless claims data, and ongoing US-China trade negotiations. Central bank policies and global economic sentiment remain key drivers of price action across gold, silver, oil, and natural gas markets.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS 

• Gold Drops Ahead of Expected US-UK Trade Deal Announcement
• Silver Faces Pressure as Key Support Level Approaches Again
• Crude Oil Rises Slightly on Inventory Drop, Trade Uncertainty
• Natural Gas Eyes Breakout If Resistance at $3.721 Holds Firm

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold Declines Amid Risk-On Sentiment and Trade Deal Optimism

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday, pressured by improved market sentiment and optimism surrounding a possible US-UK trade agreement. The metal dropped nearly 1%, trading around $3,333.

Key Drivers:

• US-UK Trade Deal: US President Trump is expected to announce a trade deal with the UK at 14:00 GMT. UK officials have confirmed the announcement but withheld specific details.
• Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50%. Chair Powell highlighted economic resilience but warned of risks from tariffs and global uncertainty.
• Market Expectations: FedWatch Tool suggests no rate cuts before summer, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages (Exponential):

• MA 10: 3327.76 – Bullish
• MA 20: 3283.68 – Bullish
• MA 50: 3151.89 – Bullish

Moving Averages (Simple):

• MA 10: 3321.61 – Bullish
• MA 20: 3308.75 – Bullish
• MA 50: 3121.57 – Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 57.47 – Buy Zone, Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 59.31 – Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 3455.95 | R2: 3584.20
• Support: S1: 3040.74 | S2: 2912.49

Market Sentiment: Bullish

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 3333.00
• Take Profit: 3369.50
• Stop Loss: 3315.20

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver Under Pressure Below Key Resistance

Silver prices remain below the $32.835 resistance level, trading around $32.36 after reaching a peak of $32.94. Despite support from a weaker USD, silver could face further downside if it breaks the $32.232 support.

Key Drivers:

• Dual Demand Nature: Silver benefits from both industrial demand and safe-haven appeal.
• US Dollar Weakness: The Dollar Index (DXY) remains below 101, supporting silver.
• Upcoming Data: US jobless claims data could influence near-term direction.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages (Exponential):

• MA 10: 32.64 – Bearish
• MA 20: 32.59 – Bearish
• MA 50: 31.70 – Bullish

Moving Averages (Simple):

• MA 10: 32.58 – Bearish
• MA 20: 32.57 – Bearish
• MA 50: 48.22 – Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 48.43 – Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 44.48 – Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 33.35 | R2: 34.42
• Support: S1: 32.22 | S2: 31.57

Market Sentiment: Neutral

Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 32.58
• Take Profit: 32.15
• Stop Loss: 32.84

Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI Rises but Faces Headwinds from Trade Uncertainty

WTI crude oil rebounded above $58.00 in Asian trading, supported by a drop in US inventories. However, ongoing US-China trade tensions continue to cap upside potential.

Key Drivers:

• EIA Report: US crude inventories fell by 2.032 million barrels.
• US-China Negotiations: Scheduled talks on May 10 in Switzerland aim to restart dialogue, though expectations remain low.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Powell emphasized uncertainty due to tariffs, maintaining a cautious policy stance.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages (Exponential):

• MA 10: 59.35 – Bearish
• MA 20: 60.85 – Bearish
• MA 50: 64.10 – Bearish

Moving Averages (Simple):

• MA 10: 59.37 – Bearish
• MA 20: 60.87 – Bearish
• MA 50: 64.74 – Bearish

Indicators:

• RSI: 40.49 – Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 34.45 – Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 68.40 | R2: 72.45
• Support: S1: 55.30 | S2: 51.25

Market Sentiment: Bearish

Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 59.14
• Take Profit: 57.42
• Stop Loss: 60.25

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Eyes Breakout Above Key Resistance

Natural gas is trading near $3.637, supported by a rising trendline and a strong technical foundation. A break above $3.721 could signal a move toward $3.864.

Key Drivers:

• Technical Support: 50-day EMA at $3.503 underpins the recent recovery.
• Trend Momentum: Holding above $3.452 and near $3.721 signals strength.
• Market Focus: A sustained breakout could attract additional buyers.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages (Exponential):

• MA 10: 3.412 – Bullish
• MA 20: 3.423 – Bullish
• MA 50: 3.583 – Bearish

Moving Averages (Simple):

• MA 10: 3.365 – Bullish
• MA 20: 3.300 – Bullish
• MA 50: 3.762 – Bearish

Indicators:

• RSI: 53.57 – Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 80.57 – Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 3.938 | R2: 4.244
• Support: S1: 2.948 | S2: 2.642

Market Sentiment: Bullish

Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 3.54
• Take Profit: 3.83
• Stop Loss: 3.39

Commodity Market Summary

• Gold: Down 0.73% at $3,340.55
• Silver: Down 0.50% at $32.38
• Palladium: Down 0.58% at $957.42
• Platinum: Up 0.11% at $977.42
• Brent Crude Oil: Up 1.10% at $61.64
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 1.26% at $58.65

Key Economic Events Today

• BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP):
• Forecast: 4.25%
• Previous: 4.50%
• Time: 16:30 GMT
• US Initial Jobless Claims (USD):
• Forecast: 231K
• Previous: 241K
• Time: 18:00 GMT