Easing trade tensions have impacted the commodities market, particularly precious metals. Gold recorded its largest weekly drop since February after retreating from record highs, while silver faced similar pressure. Oil prices experienced their biggest weekly loss in a month ahead of an OPEC+ meeting. Meanwhile, natural gas futures rebounded, eyeing key resistance levels amid renewed optimism surrounding trade negotiations. Market attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Gold Faces Weekly Drop Amid Eased Trade Tensions, Fed Awaits
- Silver Slips as Fed Rate Hopes Diminish, Trade Stabilizes
- Oil Suffers Steep Loss Ahead of Crucial OPEC+ Meeting
- Natural Gas Surges Above 200-Day MA, Eyes Resistance Breakout
Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook
Easing Global Trade Tensions Dampen Bullish Momentum
Gold prices corrected from the record high of $3,500 set on April 22, logging the biggest weekly decline since February. Improved market sentiment and reduced trade war concerns contributed to the downturn. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on May 7 will be critical in determining the next direction for gold.
Key Market Drivers
- Financial Times reported a decline in Chinese goods expected at the Port of Los Angeles.
- China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed no current trade talks with the US.
- US President considering easing automotive tariffs.
- ISM Services PMI report due Monday; a contraction could weaken the USD and support gold.
- Fed is expected to maintain rates at 4.25% to 4.5%.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages:
- Exponential MA:
- MA 10: 3281.02 – Bearish
- MA 20: 3242.83 – Bearish
- MA 50: 3114.55 – Bullish
- Simple MA:
- MA 10: 3318.67 – Bearish
- MA 20: 3239.40 – Bullish
- MA 50: 3086.55 – Bullish
Indicators:
- RSI: 52.97 – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 28.43 – Neutral
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: R1 3455.94, R2 3584.20
- Support: S1 3040.74, S2 2912.48
Market Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 3185.00
- Take Profit: 3360.00
- Stop Loss: 3094.50
Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Outlook
Fed Policy and Trade Sentiment Shape Silver’s Path
Silver prices declined last week as traders reacted to a robust US jobs report and tempered Fed rate cut expectations. While improved trade sentiment offered some support, it was not enough to reverse the bearish momentum.
Key Market Drivers
- Trades below 50-day MA at $32.63, indicating bearish trend.
- Key retracement zone: $32.19 to $31.45.
- 200-day MA at $31.09 reinforces support.
- Focus remains on Fed’s rate decision and policy tone.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages:
- Exponential MA:
- MA 10: 32.82 – Bearish
- MA 20: 32.09 – Bearish
- MA 50: 31.60 – Bullish
- Simple MA:
- MA 10: 32.58 – Bearish
- MA 20: 32.56 – Bearish
- MA 50: 31.90 – Bullish
Indicators:
- RSI: 44.36 – Neutral
- Stochastic Oscillator: 14.57 – Negative
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: R1 32.86, R2 34.09
- Support: S1 31.83, S2 30.73
Market Sentiment: Neutral
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Sell: 32.22
- Take Profit: 31.30
- Stop Loss: 32.83
Crude Oil (Brent & WTI) Weekly Outlook
Oil Records Largest Weekly Loss in a Month as OPEC+ Meeting Nears
Crude oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday, marking their biggest weekly decline since late March, driven by concerns over OPEC+ output policy and global economic slowdown.
Key Market Drivers
- Brent fell over 8%, WTI lost 7.7% for the week.
- OPEC+ meeting moved earlier to Saturday.
- Over 5 million barrels per day currently cut by OPEC+.
- Trade war easing potential supported risk sentiment.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages:
- Exponential MA:
- MA 10: 60.61 – Bearish
- MA 20: 62.11 – Bearish
- MA 50: 65.11 – Bearish
- Simple MA:
- MA 10: 61.26 – Bearish
- MA 20: 61.43 – Bearish
- MA 50: 65.66 – Bearish
Indicators:
- RSI: 35.23 – Bearish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 19.83 – Neutral
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: R1 68.40, R2 72.44
- Support: S1 55.29, S2 51.25
Market Sentiment: Bearish
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Sell: 59.86
- Take Profit: 56.94
- Stop Loss: 62.04
Natural Gas Weekly Outlook
Futures Bounce from 200-Day MA, Bulls Target Resistance
Natural gas futures ended the week with a strong breakout from consolidation, supported by bullish technical signals and positive sentiment around US-China trade talks.
Key Market Drivers
- Breakout above 200-day MA at $3.103.
- Targeting 50% retracement level at $3.733.
- Potential move to $3.966 (50-day MA) and $4.062 pivot level.
- Supported by storage data and broader market optimism.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages:
- Exponential MA:
- MA 10: 3.29 – Bullish
- MA 20: 3.38 – Bullish
- MA 50: 3.59 – Bearish
- Simple MA:
- MA 10: 3.18 – Bullish
- MA 20: 3.33 – Bullish
- MA 50: 3.81 – Bearish
Indicators:
- RSI: 53.59 – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 66.27 – Neutral
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: R1 3.93, R2 4.24
- Support: S1 2.94, S2 2.64
Market Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 3.45
- Take Profit: 3.83
- Stop Loss: 3.27
Other Commodities Snapshot
- Gold: Up 0.05% at 3240.61
- Silver: Down 1.18% at 31.99
- Palladium: Up 0.81% at 950.33
- Platinum: Down 0.41% at 963.73
- Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.70% at 61.42
- WTI Crude Oil: Down 0.87% at 58.46
Key Economic Events This Week
Monday
- (USD) S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
- (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
Wednesday
- (USD) FOMC Statement
- (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday
- (USD) FOMC Press Conference
- (USD) Initial Jobless Claims
- (GBP) BoE Interest Rate Decision (May)
- (GBP) BoE Inflation Letter
Friday
- (GBP) Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- (GBP) BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
- (CAD) Employment Change (Apr)