Precious metals and energy markets experienced heightened volatility last week, driven by easing US-China trade tensions, shifting economic sentiment, and evolving supply concerns. As investors pivot toward upcoming US data releases and geopolitical developments, the near-term direction for Gold, Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas remains delicately balanced.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS 

• Gold Falls From Record Highs As Trade Tensions Ease
• Silver Consolidates, Awaiting Key US Economic Data For Direction
• Oil Slips As Supply Fears And Trade Uncertainty Persist
• Natural Gas Drops Amid Mild Weather And Oversupply Concerns

Markets In Focus Today

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold Weekly Outlook: Pullback from Record Highs Extends as US-China Trade Tensions Ease

Gold started the week with strong bullish momentum, setting a fresh record high of $3,500 during Tuesday’s Asian session before facing a sharp correction later in the week.

Key Drivers:

• Safe-haven demand surged early in the week amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and escalating US-China tensions.
• Reports indicated Chinese state-backed funds were pulling back from US investments, boosting gold demand.
• Optimism over US-China trade talks later in the week pressured gold prices lower.

Upcoming Focus:

• Preliminary US Q1 GDP data expected at 0.4% growth vs. 2.4% in Q4 2024.
• Weaker GDP could weaken the USD and lift gold, while stronger figures could pressure gold prices further.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 3292.1247 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 3218.6394 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 3077.1380 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 3310.1517 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 3196.6186 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 3049.7389 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 61.8777 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 66.5287 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 3139.5072 | R2: 3203.7148
• Support: S1: 2931.6488 | S2: 2867.4412

Overall Sentiment

• Market Direction: Buy
• Trade Suggestion:
• Limit Buy: 3247.00
• Take Profit: 3435.50
• Stop Loss: 3161.00

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver Weekly Outlook: Price Consolidation Ahead of Key Economic Data

Silver closed the week under moderate pressure, pulling back from recent highs amid reassessments of global growth outlook and US monetary policy expectations.

Key Drivers:

• Safe-haven demand initially supported prices amid US-China uncertainty.
• Improved trade headlines later in the week reduced safe-haven appeal.
• Focus now shifts to key US economic indicators like ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 32.73 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 32.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 31.50 | Positive Crossover | Bearish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 32.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 32.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 31.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 54.2 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 94.47 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 33.61 | R2: 34.84
• Support: S1: 32.31 | S2: 30.73

Overall Sentiment

• Market Direction: Buy
• Trade Suggestion:
• Limit Buy: 32.66
• Take Profit: 34.16
• Stop Loss: 31.83

Crude Oil (Brent & WTI)

Oil Weekly Outlook: Prices Decline Amid Tariff Concerns and Rising Supply Levels

Oil prices ended the week lower despite a modest rebound on Friday, as concerns about oversupply and trade uncertainty weighed heavily.

Key Drivers:

• Signs of thawing US-China tensions initially boosted optimism.
• Beijing’s dismissal of Trump’s negotiation claims reversed some gains.
• Supply concerns persisted with OPEC+ policies and Middle East developments under watch.

Upcoming Focus:

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls reports.
• OPEC+ communications and geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 63.0024 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 63.8985 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 66.3672 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 62.6521 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 64.0011 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 66.8810 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Indicators

• RSI: 45.1955 | Neutral Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 64.3778 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 71.9971 | R2: 73.5573
• Support: S1: 66.9463 | S2: 65.3861

Overall Sentiment

• Market Direction: Sell
• Trade Suggestion:
• Limit Sell: 63.57
• Take Profit: 60.43
• Stop Loss: 65.67

Natural Gas (NG)

Natural Gas Weekly Outlook: Prices Struggle Amid Mild Weather and Ample Supply

Natural gas prices ended the week lower as forecasts for milder weather and strong production pressured the market.

Key Drivers:

• Higher-than-expected inventory build confirmed by EIA data.
• Robust production levels maintained bearish pressure.
• Mild weather outlook dampened expectations for heating and cooling demand.

Upcoming Focus:

• Weather pattern developments.
• EIA inventory report.
• Trends in production and broader energy market sentiment.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 3.1963 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 3.4149 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 3.6574 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 3.1887 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 3.5116 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 3.8933 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Indicators

• RSI: 31.9047 | Sell Zone | Bearish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 9.2121 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 4.7739 | R2: 5.0791
• Support: S1: 3.7861 | S2: 3.4809

Overall Sentiment

• Market Direction: Sell
• Trade Suggestion:
• Limit Sell: 3.08
• Take Profit: 2.79
• Stop Loss: 3.31

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

• Gold: Down 0.9% at 3318.76
• Silver: Down 1.34% at 33.08
• Palladium: Down 0.83% at 939.73
• Platinum: Up 0.2% at 974.42
• Brent Crude Oil: Up 0.43% at 65.86
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 0.6% at 63.13

Key Economic Events & Data Releases This Week

• Tuesday:
• USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
• USD: JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
• Wednesday:
• AUD: CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• EUR: German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• EUR: German CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• USD: GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• USD: Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
• Thursday:
• JPY: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• USD: Initial Jobless Claims
• USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• Friday:
• EUR: CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)
• USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• USD: Unemployment Rate (Apr)