Major currency pairs are trading cautiously at the beginning of the week, with the US Dollar (USD) finding modest support amid easing US-China trade tensions. Shifting central bank expectations and ongoing global trade developments continue to drive mixed movements across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD pairs.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1350 as US-China Tensions Ease
- GBP/USD Steadies Around 1.3300 Despite Mixed Trade Sentiment Signal
- USD/JPY Remains Pressured Amid Uncertainty Over US-China Trade Talks
- AUD/USD Declines Again as US Dollar Gains Renewed Strength
EUR/USD: Euro Remains Under Pressure Amid Easing Trade Tensions
Market Overview
EUR/USD extends its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.1360 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar gains strength, supported by signs of easing US-China tensions.
- Key Developments:
- China exempts certain US imports from its 125% tariffs.
- Daily discussions reported between US and Chinese officials on tariff issues.
- Dovish outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB) as inflation concerns rise.
- ECB policymaker Olli Rehn highlights risks of inflation undershooting the 2% target.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 1.1333 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.1225 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.0979 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 1.1373 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1204 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.0904 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 62.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 69.66 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.0938 | R2: 1.1074
- Support: S1: 1.0495 | S2: 1.0358
Market Sentiment
- Overall Sentiment: Bullish
- Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion
- Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1236
- Take Profit: 1.1515
- Stop Loss: 1.1094
GBP/USD: Pound Holds Firm Near 1.3300 Amid Mixed Sentiment
Market Overview
GBP/USD fluctuates within a narrow range around the 1.3300 psychological level, supported by stronger domestic data and optimism regarding a potential UK-US trade agreement.
- Key Developments:
- US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid lingering US-China uncertainty.
- Strong UK retail sales data (+0.4% MoM in March) eases BoE dovish fears.
- Fed rate cut expectations cap USD gains, offering additional support to GBP.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 1.3256 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.3162 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.2975 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 1.3289 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.3117 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.2944 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.27 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 84.49 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.3003 | R2: 1.3106
- Support: S1: 1.2668 | S2: 1.2565
Market Sentiment
- Overall Sentiment: Bullish
- Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion
- Entry: Limit Buy at 1.3209
- Take Profit: 1.3431
- Stop Loss: 1.3094
USD/JPY: Yen Struggles as Safe-Haven Demand Wanes
Market Overview
USD/JPY fluctuates near a two-week low, supported by a slightly stronger US Dollar amid easing trade tensions. Investor optimism limits safe-haven demand for the Yen.
- Key Developments:
- Mixed signals from US-China trade talks.
- Reduced expectations for immediate BoJ rate hikes.
- Diverging policy expectations between BoJ and Fed restrain USD gains.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 143.2926 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 144.3957 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 50: 147.0946 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 142.5989 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 144.4748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 50: 147.4047 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.46 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
- Stochastic Oscillator: 41.03 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 151.0629 | R2: 152.1861
- Support: S1: 147.4271 | S2: 146.3039
Market Sentiment
- Overall Sentiment: Bearish
- Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion
- Entry: Limit Sell at 145.22
- Take Profit: 141.49
- Stop Loss: 147.90
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Pressured Amid Trade Optimism and RBA Rate Cut Bets
Market Overview
AUD/USD remains under pressure for a second session, impacted by a strengthening US Dollar and expectations of a potential Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut.
- Key Developments:
- Easing US-China trade tensions lift USD demand.
- China’s Finance Ministry warns of global growth risks.
- RBA likely to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in May.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 0.6358 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6323 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 0.6377 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 0.6279 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.58 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
- Stochastic Oscillator: 90.40 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 0.6352 | R2: 0.6400
- Support: S1: 0.6196 | S2: 0.6148
Market Sentiment
- Overall Sentiment: Neutral
- Market Direction: Neutral
Trade Suggestion
- Entry: Limit Sell at 0.6386
- Take Profit: 0.6344
- Stop Loss: 0.6420
Elsewhere in the Forex Market
USD/CHF up 0.39% to 0.8309
USD/CAD up 0.21% to 1.3884
EUR/GBP down 0.16% to 0.8521
EUR/AUD up 0.24% to 1.7806
AUD/NZD up 0.07% to 1.0736
USD/CNY up 0.17% to 7.2982
AUD/SEK down 0.11% to 6.1850
Key Economic Events Today
(CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar): Previous reading at 0.3%. Data release scheduled at 17:30.