Major currency pairs showed varied performance as traders across the US and UK navigated mixed global cues and domestic data. The euro hovered near 1.1200, while the pound climbed following upbeat UK GDP results. The Australian dollar pulled back despite a strong labor market, and USD/CHF remained under pressure ahead of key inflation figures. With both the New York and London trading sessions heavily influencing price action, today’s report provides a focused outlook for traders in these regions.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Euro holds steady near 1.1200 despite policy rate risks.
- Pound strengthens as UK GDP growth beats market expectations.
- Aussie dips despite strong jobs report and easing trade tensions.
- Dollar-Swiss weakens amid cautious sentiment and inflation data focus.
EUR/USD: Euro Holds Near 1.1200 Amid Global Uncertainty
Market Overview
During the London and early New York sessions, EUR/USD hovered close to the 1.1200 mark, recovering from recent lows near 1.1065. While the pair showed signs of stabilizing, its inability to reclaim recent highs reflects broader market caution. Investor sentiment improved slightly after the weekend’s US-China tariff agreement, which helped suppress demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, persistent uncertainty driven by US policy volatility continues to cap risk appetite.
The euro also remained resilient despite expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Elevated US Treasury yields—10-year yields above 4.50%—usually support the dollar, yet haven’t translated into a clear uptrend, adding to the confusion across London and Wall Street.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages – Exponential
- MA 10: 1.1228 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1237 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 50: 1.1092 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Moving Averages – Simple
- MA 10: 1.1241 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1308 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 50: 1.1099 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 49.16 – Buy zone – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 33.79 – Sell zone – Neutral
Support & Resistance
- R1: 1.1529
- R2: 1.1717
- S1: 1.0922
- S2: 1.0734
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 1.1162
- Take Profit: 1.1278
- Stop Loss: 1.1102
GBP/USD: Pound Strengthens as UK GDP Beats Forecasts
Market Overview
The British pound gained ground during the London session after stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP figures from the UK. The economy expanded 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, beating the 0.6% forecast and pointing to reduced pressure on the Bank of England to ease rates in the near term.
However, weaker UK manufacturing and industrial production data for March suggest that pockets of weakness remain. For US and UK traders, the pound’s resilience could offer buying opportunities during London open and early US session hours.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages – Exponential
- MA 10: 1.3273 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 20: 1.3251 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 50: 1.3104 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Moving Averages – Simple
- MA 10: 1.3276 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 20: 1.3303 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 50: 1.3104 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 53.01 – Buy zone – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 44.95 – Neutral zone – Neutral
Support & Resistance
- R1: 1.3440
- R2: 1.3613
- S1: 1.2878
- S2: 1.2705
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 1.3249
- Take Profit: 1.3322
- Stop Loss: 1.3215
AUD/USD: Aussie Dollar Slides as Markets Eye Key US Data
Market Overview
The Australian dollar lost traction during the London and early US sessions, despite an impressive domestic employment report. The pullback reflects cautious sentiment ahead of key US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data due during New York hours.
Labor figures showed job growth of 89,000 in April—more than quadruple market expectations—but failed to sustain AUD gains. The US-China tariff truce has softened risk aversion, yet traders in the US and UK appear hesitant to extend long AUD/USD positions without further confirmation from US data.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages – Exponential
- MA 10: 0.6419 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6397 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6351 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Moving Averages – Simple
- MA 10: 0.6431 – Negative crossover – Bearish
- MA 20: 0.6411 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6326 – Positive crossover – Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 53.87 – Buy zone – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 52.13 – Buy zone – Neutral
Support & Resistance
- R1: 0.6459
- R2: 0.6585
- S1: 0.6050
- S2: 0.5924
Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 0.6385
- Take Profit: 0.6465
- Stop Loss: 0.6347
USD/CHF: Dollar Under Pressure Near 0.8400 Ahead of Key US Releases
Market Overview
USD/CHF dipped below the 0.8400 mark during the early London session and remained subdued into US hours. Despite a rebound earlier in the week, the pair faces headwinds from cautious sentiment surrounding upcoming US inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
With safe-haven flows supporting the Swiss franc amid mixed equity markets, USD/CHF has lacked the momentum to break higher. Traders in New York are closely watching for signs of inflation softening, while Swiss PPI data later this week could provide further local direction.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages – Exponential
- MA 10: 0.8339 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 20: 0.8332 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 50: 0.8470 – Negative crossover – Bearish
Moving Averages – Simple
- MA 10: 0.8316 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 20: 0.8272 – Positive crossover – Bullish
- MA 50: 0.8495 – Negative crossover – Bearish
Indicators
- RSI: 51.53 – Buy zone – Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 70.99 – Buy zone – Neutral
Support & Resistance
- R1: 0.8693
- R2: 0.8884
- S1: 0.8075
- S2: 0.7884
Overall Sentiment: Neutral
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Sell: 0.8390
- Take Profit: 0.8323
- Stop Loss: 0.8434
Key Market Snapshot
- USD/CAD up 0.02% at 1.3986
- USD/JPY down 0.58% at 145.90
- EUR/GBP up 0.12% at 0.8435
- EUR/AUD up 0.33% at 1.7438
- AUD/NZD up 0.03% at 1.0901
- USD/CNY up 0.04% at 7.2107
- AUD/SEK down 0.37% at 6.2474
Key Economic Events Today (UK/US Time Zones)
- UK GDP (MoM) (Mar): Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.5% – 11:30 BST
- UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Forecast 0.6%, Previous 0.1% – 11:30 BST
- UK GDP (YoY) (Q1): Forecast 1.2%, Previous 1.5% – 11:30 BST
- US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.5% – 13:00 EST / 18:00 BST
- US Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 229K, Previous 228K – 13:00 EST / 18:00 BST
Trader Q&A
Q1: Why is EUR/USD not rising despite high US yields?
A: Market sentiment remains cautious due to unpredictable US policies and looming ECB rate cuts, which offset the dollar’s typical yield advantage.
Q2: How does UK GDP affect GBP/USD?
A: Strong GDP data supports the pound by reducing the likelihood of rate cuts by the BoE, making GBP more attractive.
Q3: Why did AUD/USD fall after strong jobs data?
A: Despite solid labor numbers, traders are cautious ahead of key US data. Risk appetite also plays a role, and AUD is sensitive to global sentiment.
Q4: What’s keeping USD/CHF subdued near 0.8400?
A: Weak USD performance and demand for the Swiss franc amid risk-off sentiment are limiting USD/CHF gains.
Q5: When is the best time for UK and US traders to trade these pairs?
A: The overlap between the London and New York sessions (13:00–17:00 GMT / 8:00–12:00 EST) typically sees the highest liquidity and volatility.