Major currency pairs experienced volatile moves this week as shifting US Dollar sentiment, trade tensions, and mixed economic data shaped market dynamics. In the coming days, key releases including inflation figures, GDP growth, and employment reports from major economies are expected to set the tone for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- EUR/USD: Inflation, GDP, and Jobs Data to Shape Direction
- GBP/USD: Pound Strengthens Amid US Dollar Swings and Trade Uncertainty
- AUD/USD: Aussie Remains Firm, Focus Shifts to Inflation and China
- USD/JPY: Dollar-Yen Tracks US Data, Fed Stance, and Risk Sentiment
Markets in Focus Today
EUR/USD – Focus Shifts to Inflation, Economic Growth, and Employment Data
Weekly Overview
The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1573—its highest level since November 2021—before retreating sharply, losing over 300 pips by the weekly close and ending with modest losses.
Key drivers included:
- Heavy selling of the US Dollar amid fears of political instability at the White House.
- Concerns over potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
- Stalled trade negotiations with China and slowing economic momentum.
- S&P Global’s PMI figures indicating deeper-than-expected contractions in major economies.
Looking ahead, a series of major economic events will likely dictate the pair’s movements:
- Wednesday: Germany’s preliminary Q1 GDP (expected +0.2%), Eurozone Q1 GDP (expected +0.2%), Germany’s HICP inflation data, and US ADP Employment Change and CPI figures.
- Thursday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Friday: Eurozone final HICP and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 1.1329 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.1211 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.0964 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 1.1373 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 20: 1.1177 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.0887 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 62.98 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 68.86 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.0938 | R2: 1.1074
- Support: S1: 1.0495 | S2: 1.0358
Overall Sentiment
- Market Direction: Buy
- Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 1.1210
- Take Profit: 1.1513
- Stop Loss: 1.1051
GBP/USD – Pound Sterling Maintains Upward Momentum
Weekly Overview
The British Pound extended its bullish run against the US Dollar, briefly pushing the GBP/USD pair above the 1.3400 mark.
Key influences included:
- Fluctuating US Dollar sentiment, driven by political uncertainty and trade policy signals from the White House.
- Resilient UK retail sales, rising by 0.4% MoM in March, despite forecasts of a decline.
- Commentary from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on trade policy uncertainty affecting business and consumer behavior.
Upcoming events likely to impact GBP/USD include:
- US employment reports: JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and Nonfarm Payrolls.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 1.3246 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.3147 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.2962 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 1.3277 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 1.3097 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 1.2931 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 64.24 | Buy Zone | Bullish
- Stochastic Oscillator: 82.88 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 1.3003 | R2: 1.3106
- Support: S1: 1.2668 | S2: 1.2565
Overall Sentiment
- Market Direction: Buy
- Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 1.3159
- Take Profit: 1.3421
- Stop Loss: 1.3018
AUD/USD – Aussie Eyes Key Economic Data Amid Fragile Risk Sentiment
Weekly Overview
The Australian Dollar closed the week cautiously higher against the US Dollar, with momentum capped by uncertainty over China’s recovery and US economic trends.
Key factors influencing AUD/USD included:
- Commodity price fluctuations, especially in iron ore and copper.
- Risk asset trends.
- Mixed performance of the US Dollar due to varying job market strength and inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, key drivers include:
- Australia’s Q1 inflation updates.
- US economic indicators including ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls.
- China’s economic data releases and stimulus measures.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 0.6355 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6318 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6298 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 0.6372 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 0.6273 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 50: 0.6295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Indicators
- RSI: 57.97 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
- Stochastic Oscillator: 89.77 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 0.6352 | R2: 0.6400
- Support: S1: 0.6196 | S2: 0.6148
Overall Sentiment
- Market Direction: Buy
- Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Buy: 0.6366
- Take Profit: 0.6440
- Stop Loss: 0.6322
USD/JPY – Dollar-Yen Pair Eyes Key US Data and Fed Signals
Weekly Overview
The USD/JPY pair closed the week with modest gains, supported by firm US Treasury yields and a rebound in risk sentiment.
Key themes included:
- Cautious Fed commentary emphasizing elevated rates for longer.
- Bank of Japan maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy.
- Risk sentiment volatility continuing to influence demand for safe-haven Yen.
Upcoming catalysts for USD/JPY include:
- Key US data releases: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and Nonfarm Payrolls.
- Movements in US Treasury yields.
- Ongoing geopolitical developments.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- MA 10: 143.2014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 144.4686 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 50: 147.2330 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- MA 10: 142.5240 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
- MA 20: 144.7841 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
- MA 50: 147.5605 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Indicators
- RSI: 43.08 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
- Stochastic Oscillator: 38.83 | Sell Zone | Neutral
Key Levels
- Resistance: R1: 151.0629 | R2: 152.1861
- Support: S1: 147.4271 | S2: 146.3039
Overall Sentiment
- Market Direction: Sell
- Trade Suggestion:
- Limit Sell: 145.03
- Take Profit: 141.68
- Stop Loss: 147.66
Elsewhere in the Forex Market
- USD/CHF up 0.11% to 0.8278
- USD/CAD down 0.0% to 1.3855
- EUR/GBP down 0.03% to 0.8536
- EUR/AUD down 0.04% to 1.7762
- AUD/NZD up 0.38% to 1.0728
- USD/CNY down 0.02% to 7.2859
- AUD/SEK up 0.68% to 6.1951
Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today
- (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) – Tuesday
- (USD) JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) – Tuesday
- (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q1) – Wednesday
- (CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Apr) – Wednesday
- (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) – Wednesday
- (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Apr) – Wednesday
- (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) – Wednesday
- (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) – Wednesday
- (USD) Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) – Wednesday
- (JPY) BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Thursday
- (USD) Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday
- (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) – Thursday
- (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Apr) – Friday
- (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) – Friday
- (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) – Friday
- (USD) Unemployment Rate (Apr) – Friday