Major currency pairs are trading with caution on Wednesday as traders await several high-impact U.S. economic releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and employment data. At the same time, geopolitical developments and central bank commentary are affecting price movement across key pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS 

• EUR/USD steady below 1.1400 ahead of key data releases
• GBP/USD retreats slightly before U.S. GDP and inflation reports
• USD/JPY struggles ahead of Bank of Japan rate decision
• USD/CHF dips as Swiss Franc gains on trade uncertainties

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1400 Ahead of Economic Data

Fundamental Overview

EUR/USD is consolidating just below the 1.1400 mark as investors await critical economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States.

• The pair has recovered from the mid-1.1300s seen during the Asian session but lacks bullish momentum.
• The U.S. Dollar is gaining traction for the second day amid cautious repositioning ahead of economic releases.
• Dovish sentiment from the European Central Bank continues to weigh on the Euro, with markets pricing in a 75% probability of a rate cut in June.
• The Federal Reserve’s potential for upcoming rate cuts is limiting the upside for the USD, offering mild support to the EUR/USD.
• Upcoming data releases from Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone will be closely monitored, alongside U.S. releases including ADP employment data, Q1 GDP, and the PCE Price Index.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 1.1358 | Bullish (Positive Crossover)
• MA 20: 1.1259 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1013 | Bullish
• Simple
• MA 10: 1.1389 | Bearish (Negative Crossover)
• MA 20: 1.1265 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0943 | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 62.42 – Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 65.47 – Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 1.0938 | R2: 1.1074
• Support: S1: 1.0495 | S2: 1.0358

Market Sentiment

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish
• Market Direction: Buy
• Trade Suggestion:
• Entry (Limit Buy): 1.1264
• Take Profit: 1.1477
• Stop Loss: 1.1166

GBP/USD Pulls Back Ahead of U.S. Economic Releases

Fundamental Overview

The Pound Sterling is under slight pressure against the U.S. Dollar, trading near 1.3400 after reaching a three-year high of 1.3445.

• The USD is recovering ahead of major U.S. economic data, limiting GBP/USD upside.
• Anticipated slowdown in U.S. Q1 GDP due to tariffs imposed earlier this month.
• Concerns persist over shifting trade signals from the White House, creating uncertainty.
• Additional focus is on U.S. ADP employment, the Employment Cost Index, and PCE inflation data.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 1.3317 | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.3214 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.3012 | Bullish
• Simple
• MA 10: 1.3335 | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.3167 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.2979 | Bullish

Indicators

• RSI: 64.89 – Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 93.15 – Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 1.3003 | R2: 1.3106
• Support: S1: 1.2668 | S2: 1.2565

Market Sentiment

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish
• Market Direction: Buy
• Trade Suggestion:
• Entry (Limit Buy): 1.3337
• Take Profit: 1.3444
• Stop Loss: 1.3280

USD/JPY Under Pressure Ahead of BoJ Decision

Fundamental Overview

The Japanese Yen remains weak against the U.S. Dollar, with USD/JPY climbing above 142.50 in early European trade.

• Reduced demand for safe havens amid easing trade tensions.
• President Trump’s tariff flexibility for U.S. automakers adds to optimism.
• Weak domestic data is weighing on the Yen.
• Traders await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Thursday, with no rate change expected.
• Expectations of future Fed rate cuts limit the upside for USD/JPY.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 142.8478 | Bearish
• MA 20: 143.9314 | Bearish
• MA 50: 146.6847 | Bearish
• Simple
• MA 10: 142.4474 | Bullish
• MA 20: 143.7295 | Bearish
• MA 50: 147.0034 | Bearish

Indicators

• RSI: 41.57 – Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 39.41 – Sell Zone | Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 151.0629 | R2: 152.1861
• Support: S1: 147.4271 | S2: 146.3039

Market Sentiment

• Overall Sentiment: Bearish
• Market Direction: Sell
• Trade Suggestion:
• Entry (Limit Sell): 143.28
• Take Profit: 141.93
• Stop Loss: 144.67

USD/CHF Drifts Lower Amid Trade Uncertainty

Fundamental Overview

USD/CHF is trading near 0.6410, pressured by ongoing trade-related risks and safe-haven flows into the Swiss Franc.

• Confusion over U.S.-China trade negotiations continues.
• Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator is due later today.
• Uncertainty supports CHF while weighing on the USD.
• Focus remains on U.S. economic data, especially the ADP jobs report, GDP, and PCE.
• Friday’s NFP report could bring renewed volatility.

Technical Overview

Moving Averages

• Exponential
• MA 10: 0.8246 | Bullish
• MA 20: 0.8329 | Bearish
• MA 50: 0.8552 | Bearish
• Simple
• MA 10: 0.8216 | Bullish
• MA 20: 0.8291 | Bearish
• MA 50: 0.8633 | Bearish

Indicators

• RSI: 40.34 – Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 45.05 – Neutral

Key Levels

• Resistance: R1: 0.8980 | R2: 0.9045
• Support: S1: 0.8770 | S2: 0.8705

Market Sentiment

• Overall Sentiment: Bearish
• Market Direction: Sell
• Trade Suggestion:
• Entry (Limit Sell): 0.8268
• Take Profit: 0.8189
• Stop Loss: 0.8319

Other Forex Market Movements

• AUD/USD: Up 0.13% at 0.6391
• USD/CAD: Down 0.01% at 1.3833
• EUR/GBP: Up 0.14% at 0.8503
• EUR/AUD: Down 0.21% at 1.7799
• AUD/NZD: Up 0.21% at 1.0789
• USD/CNY: Down 0.01% at 7.2613
• AUD/SEK: Down 0.14% at 6.1536

Key Economic Events Today