U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Tick Up to 221,000 Amid Easing Hurricane Effects
The latest data from the Labor Department shows that initial jobless claims in the U.S. edged up to 221,000 for the week ending November 2. This modest rise interrupts a recent three-week streak of declines, as the temporary impacts of hurricanes and recent labor strikes start to fade. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted parts of the southern U.S., along with the end of a strike at Boeing, had previously driven jobless claims higher in mid-October.
The adjusted figure for the prior week’s claims now stands at 218,000, after revision, and marks a slight increase from an even lower count of 216,000, which was the lowest reading since May. Economists had forecasted 223,000 claims for this week, making the actual figure slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out week-to-week volatility, dropped to 227,250 from 237,000.
As the Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day policy meeting on Thursday, attention remains focused on labor market signals that may influence upcoming interest rate decisions. Back in September, the Fed made an unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut, aiming to bolster the labor market amid softer inflation.
Markets broadly anticipate another rate cut of 25 basis points this month, with the federal funds rate now ranging from 4.75% to 5%. Futures tied to Fed policy indicate the possibility of one more cut in December, though this expectation has softened somewhat following Donald Trump’s recent victory in the 2024 presidential election.
Reflecting the impact of the election, traders are now forecasting that the Fed may reduce rates only twice more in 2025, potentially settling between 3.75% and 4%. This would signal an early end to the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, wrapping up nearly a year sooner and at a level roughly one percentage point higher than many had originally expected.